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Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023
The center of Beatriz brushed the coast of Mexico near Punta San
Telmo back around 0000 UTC, and since then the cyclone has steadily
lost organization. Earlier microwave satellite imagery shows that
the eye has disappeared, while scatterometer and synthetic aperture
radar data suggest that the surface circulation has become less well
defined. In addition, surface observations in and around Manzanillo
have not been supportive of a well-defined circulation in the area.
Based on these observations and an accompanying decrease in the
satellite cloud pattern, the initial intensity is reduced to an
uncertain 55 kt.
Although Beatriz will be moving away from the coast of Mexico later
today, the dynamical models suggest that the cyclone will not
recover from the effects of land interaction, with most of them
forecasting the system to dissipate to 2-3 days time or less. The
new NHC intensity forecast is notably lower than the previous
forecast and calls for the system to weaken to a depression by 60 h
and dissipate soon thereafter. There is a chance that Beatriz could
weaken faster than currently forecast.
The initial motion is estimated at 315/11 kt as the cyclone
continues to move along the southwest periphery of a mid-level
ridge. This general motion should continue during the next 12-24
hours, taking the core of Beatriz along or just offshore of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this morning. After
that time, assuming the storm survives, a slower and generally
west-northwestward motion is expected. The NHC track forecast is
similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Beatriz is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of western Mexico today.
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western
Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of
Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 19.4N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 20.5N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 22.1N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 22.4N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 22.6N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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