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Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Beatriz
a couple of hours ago and measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds
of 84 kt and SFMR surface winds around 70 kt, and based on that
data, Beatriz's initial intensity is 75 kt. Since that time, the
eye which had become apparent in satellite imagery has become
obscured, and it's possible that the hurricane's structure is
beginning to be affected by the nearby mountainous terrain of
Mexico.
Beatriz continues to move northwestward, or 305/11 kt, and that
general motion should continue for the next 36 hours or so while
the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge located over northern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.
On this trajectory, Beatriz will continue to graze the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next 24 hours, but any wobble to the
right of the forecast track could bring the center inland during
that time. If Beatriz survives the next 36 hours, another
mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to build over the southwestern
United States, causing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and
then westward and slow down on days 2 and 3. There is a fair
amount of model spread during that period, and the updated NHC
track forecast is closest to the GFS, TVCE, and HCCA aids, nudged a
bit to the right of the previous forecast.
Beatriz is expected to remain a hurricane during the next 24 hours
if its center remains over water, but the mountainous terrain could
cause some slow weakening regardless. After 36 hours, increasing
shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident
atmosphere are expected to contribute to faster weakening as
Beatriz moves away from west-central Mexico. Most of the global
models, with the exception of the GFS, dissipate the circulation by
day 3, so the new NHC forecast now shows Beatriz degenerating into
a remnant low by day 3, with dissipation occurring by day 4.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Beatriz is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next day or
so, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm
surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through
Saturday afternoon. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for
portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western
Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of
Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 17.8N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 20.1N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 21.1N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 22.0N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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