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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
 
The depression is producing a large area of deep convection off the 
southern coast of Mexico, however microwave imagery indicates that 
the banding features are still in the process of taking shape.  
Dvorak intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt 
from SAB, therefore the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this 
advisory.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the location of the 
depression's center, and the estimated motion (west-northwestward, 
or 300/11 kt) is primarily based on extrapolation from the previous 
advisory.  A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a fairly 
constant speed is expected during the next 2 days or so while the 
system moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and 
Hurricane Adrian to its west.  During this period, all of the track 
guidance moves the system parallel to and within 100 n mi of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico, with the typically reliable ECMWF and 
HCCA aids, as well as the new HAFS models, leaning on the right 
side of the envelope.  The NHC track forecast is closest to those 
solutions and is very similar to the previous forecast, although it 
has been sped up a bit to account for recent model trends.  After 
48 hours, the cyclone is expected to gradually bend toward the left 
and slow down as Adrian weakens and a stronger ridge develops over 
the southwestern United States.  However, it is not yet clear how 
sharp that bend will be, and the system could approach the southern 
part of the Baja California peninsula in 3 to 4 days.

The depression appears poised to strengthen in a low-shear and 
moist environment and over very warm sea surface temperatures of 
30-31 degrees Celsius.  In fact, the intensity guidance has become 
much more aggressive on this forecast cycle, including an increase 
in the chance for rapid intensification.  Most of the guidance 
shows the cyclone reaching a peak in intensity in 36-48 hours when 
it's very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, and the new 
NHC intensity forecast has been increased rather significantly 
to hurricane strength during that period compared to the previous 
forecast.  Even this forecast could be conservative, as several of 
the regional hurricane models, as well as the IVCN and HCCA 
consensus aids, are 5-25 kt higher than the official forecast at 36 
hours.  A combination of shear, a drier atmosphere, and cooler 
waters are expected to lead to weakening after 48 hours, and the 
system could be a remnant low by day 5.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen quickly and could 
become a hurricane by Friday evening, bringing a risk of strong 
winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the 
next couple of days.  A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the 
coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions 
are possible in those areas late Friday through Saturday.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of
7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from the state of
Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco.  These rains could lead to
localized flash flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 14.6N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 15.4N 100.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 16.5N 101.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 17.9N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 20.5N 106.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 21.4N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 22.1N 109.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 22.5N 112.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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