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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area off the coast of southern Mexico has become better
organized during the past several hours, with convective bands
forming near the center and an outer band in the northern
semicircle near the coast. Based on this, the system is being
designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity is 30 kt in
agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.
The initial motion is 310/12 kt. This general motion is expected
to continue for the next 3-4 days as the cyclone moves between a
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and Hurricane
Adrian to its west and southwest. After that time, a more westward
motion is expected as the weakening system is steered by Adrian
and a low-level ridge to its northwest. The new NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous track and in good agreement with
the consensus models. However, there is some uncertainty in both
the track and the forward speed, and it is possible the center
could come closer to the coast of Mexico than currently forecast.
Conditions appear favorable for strengthening, as the cyclone
should be in an environment of light- to moderate easterly shear
and high mid-level moisture for the next few days. In addition,
the sea surface temperatures are at or above 30C along much of the
forecast track during that time. The various rapid intensification
indices of the SHIPS model show a significant chance of rapid
development during the next 2-3 days, although the system may be too
close to the coast of Mexico to fully take advantage of the
favorable environment. After 72 h, decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause a quick
weakening. The official intensity forecast follows the trend of the
guidance and is near the intensity consensus.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Punta San Telmo, and
tropical storm conditions should begin within this area by Thursday
afternoon.
2. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of
7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from the state of
Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to
localized flash flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 14.0N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.0N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.0N 101.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.1N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 18.5N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 19.8N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 21.0N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 22.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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