ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022
 
...ROSLYN NOW JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 105.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Punta Mita northward to San Blas, and for the
Islas Marias.
 
The Government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Watch from El
Roblito northward to Mazatlan.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn.  Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
tonight or Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 105.0 West.  Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this evening.  A turn toward 
the northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight, followed by 
a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday and 
Saturday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will
move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight,
then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall
along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later 
tonight.  In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane 
when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
 
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday or Saturday night.
 
RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:
 
Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches
 
Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches
 
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN