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Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022
 
Paine is holding steady as a tropical storm.  Satellite imagery has 
shown a few deep convective bursts near the low-level circulation 
overnight, which is now tucked underneath some cold cloud tops.  
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from T2.0/30 kt 
and T2.5/35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.
 
There is a brief window where environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for some additional slight strengthening.  Global 
models suggest the deep-layer vertical wind shear will remain low 
for the next 6-12 hours as Paine moves over warm waters.  Beyond 
that time frame, the shear is expected to increase significantly 
which will likely force the surrounding dry mid-level humidities 
into the circulation and induce a weakening trend.  Simulated 
satellite imagery from both GFS and ECMWF suggest Paine will be a 
remnant low in a couple of days.  The latest NHC intensity forecast 
is similar to the previous advisory, but now shows Paine becoming a 
remnant low by 48 h.

The cyclone is moving northwestward at about 5 kt towards a weakness 
in the ridge to its north.  This general motion is expected to 
continue for the next day or so until the Paine weakens and turns 
westward in the low-level flow.  There is still some spread in the 
model guidance which seems largely linked to the depth of the 
circulation and when it is expected to make the turn to the west.  
The latest official track forecast is shifted south of the previous 
prediction but still north of much of model guidance, excluding the 
ECMWF.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 16.9N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 18.7N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1800Z 19.1N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 19.2N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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