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Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Although the satellite presentation of Orlene is not as impressive
as it was overnight, the center is still embedded within an area of
cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius. The eye is
also not as defined in conventional satellite imagery as earlier
today, but an Air Force Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
made two passes through the center earlier this afternoon reported
a closed 22 n-mi-wide eye on its final pass. The aircraft measured
a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 96 kt, and SFMR winds of 92 kt.
Since the plane only made a couple passes through the eastern
eyewall, the intensity is set at 100 kt, owing to some
It has been difficult to determine if today's weakening was caused
by an eyewall replacement cycle, the increase in southwesterly
shear, or a combination of both. Regardless, southwesterly
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase during the next 12 to
24 hours, which is expected to cause an additional reduction in
wind speed, plus the entrainment of some drier mid-level air to the
west of Orlene. Orlene still is forecast to pass near or over the
Islas Marias as a strong hurricane tonight, and reach the coast of
mainland Mexico as a hurricane by on Monday. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected, and the low-level center should dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico in 48-60 hours.
Satellite imagery and fixes from the aircraft show that Orlene is
still moving northward or 005/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy
is unchanged from before. Orlene should bend north-northeastward
tonight as it is steered between a mid-level ridge to its east and
a broad trough over northwestern Mexico. The track guidance is in
much better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast was only
nudged slightly westward to be closer to the various consensus
The updated track and wind radii forecast has necessitated the
issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of mainland
Mexico to the northwest of the Hurricane Warning area. No other
changes were made to the existing wind warnings.
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday
with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in
the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the
warning area in regions of onshore winds.
3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 20.4N 106.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND