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Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Orlene has changed little in organization overnight. Recent
microwave satellite imagery revealed Orlene is trying to maintain
an inner core despite some dry air attempting to wrap in from its
east. Scatterometer data indicated that the low-level center was
slightly to the southeast of what was previously estimated. These
data suggest that the cyclone may be feeling the affects of some
southeasterly shear, possibly caused by flow around the ridge to its
east. The initial intensity remains unchanged at 55 kt and is based
off a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and
the UW-CIMSS ADT.
The storm has about 36 h left to take advantage of the relatively
low vertical wind shear and moist thermodynamic environment. After
36 h, increasing southwesterly shear should cause Orlene to steadily
weaken before reaching the coast of mainland Mexico early next week.
The cyclone is then expected to dissipate shortly after moving
inland. The overall model guidance continues to back off on the
peak intensity of Orlene, likely due to the fact the cyclone has not
been able to strengthen as quickly as expected over the past day or
so. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous
one, and is on the high end of the guidance.
Orlene is moving slowly northward, at only 4 kt, to the west of a
mid-level ridge. By tonight, the cyclone should turn
north-northeastward in the flow between the ridge and an upper-level
trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California
peninsula. This north-northeastward motion is forecast to continue
until Orlene dissipates over mainland Mexico. The latest NHC track
forecast was nudged just east of the previous one, mainly due to the
slight southeastward adjustment of the initial position.
Based on the the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii,
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for
portions of the Hurricane Watch area later today.
1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over other portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico in the tropical storm watch
area tonight or Sunday.
2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
Southwest Mexico into Monday evening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 17.2N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 20.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 21.2N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 22.5N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 23.7N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND