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Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Orlene has improved in satellite presentation over the past several
hours. There is a burst of deep convection with an expanding
central dense overcast and cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees
C. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have been increasing
since the last advisory and the initial intensity has been raised to
45 kt to represent a blend of the classifications.
The storm is moving west-northwest at 6 kt on the southwestern
edge of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. Orlene is expected to turn
northwestward and northward within a day or so as it reaches the
western edge of the ridge. Beyond a day, the cyclone is forecast
to gradually turn north-northeastward in the flow between an
upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja
California peninsula until landfall by 96 h. The GFS is still
on the faster and eastern side of model guidance envelope with the
other models slower and farther west. The latest official forecast
has shifted east from the previous advisory and is west of the
consensus aids.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening for the next couple of days or so. Statistical model
guidance forecasts vertical wind shear to be low and sea surface
temperatures to be above 28 degrees C. SHIPS-RII and DTOPS are
showing above average potential for rapid intensification in the
short term forecast. Beyond three days, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and potentially force in dry environmental air
which would likely cause weakening of the relatively small storm.
After landfall, Orlene is expected to rapidly weaken. The NHC
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and
shows steady strengthening through 48 h, favoring the higher end
of the model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 15.6N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 16.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.1N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.9N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.8N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 23.7N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0000Z 26.1N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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