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Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Orlene. A mass
of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C has
persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours.
In addition, a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed
non-rain-flagged wind vectors of 31 kt and some believable vectors
of 36 kt. Based on this, the initial advisory intensity has been
set at 35 kt.
The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This motion is expected to
continue for the next day or so. After that time, the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain due to diverging track solutions.
The UKMET and ECMWF indicate a cyclone that does not strengthen any
further, and turns it westward in a couple of days in the low-level
flow. The remaining model solutions indicate a stronger cyclone,
and turn Orlene northward over the weekend as the system rounds the
western periphery of the ridge. This scenario would bring the
cyclone near the coast of Mexico or the southern Baja California
peninsula early next week. The NHC track forecast favors the latter
solution due to the favorable environmental conditions ahead of
Orlene, and is in agreement with the TVCE consensus.
Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind
shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for
the next few days. The majority of guidance, except the
aforementioned ECMWF and UKMET indicate steady strengthening during
this time, and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. After
72 h the cyclone is expected to encounter drier air and strong
southwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one and is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 48 h and
is a little below it thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 14.8N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.5N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.4N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 18.9N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 20.0N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 22.6N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 25.3N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
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Forecaster Latto
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