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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
While Newton is producing small areas of convection near and
north of the center, the storm is gradually becoming less
organized. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the
30-40 kt range, and based on the decreased organization since the
last advisory the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.
While Newton is likely to stay over warm sea surface temperatures,
a combination of a dry air mass and southerly vertical wind shear
should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for the
cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 h and to dissipate
completely by 72 h. This much longevity could be generous, as
several of the global models forecast an earlier dissipation.
The initial motion is 290/8 kt. A general west-northwest motion is
forecast for about 12 h, followed by a turn toward the west and
eventually west-southwest. The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the various
consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.2N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.9N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1800Z 16.8N 119.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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