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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022
The satellite presentation of the recently formed Tropical
Depression Fifteen has improved considerably during the past 24
hours. A well defined banding structure has developed and held in
place during the past several hours, with nice outflow evident
aloft in satellite imagery. The latest intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB were 35 knots, while ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS indicating
slightly lower. These intensity estimates appear to be a bit behind
the curve given the banding structure and organization seen in
recent microwave imagery. In fact, TAFB provided a Dvorak pattern
T-number of 3.0 (45 kt), which is the basis for the initial
intensity of this advisory.
The initial motion estimate on Newton is to the west-northwest
or 285/11 kt. This general motion with a gradual slowing in the
forward speed is expected during the next several days as the
cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a
weakness aloft to the west associated with the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Madeline. The NHC track forecast was adjusted
slightly faster and a bit north of the previous forecast, and is
close to the tightly clustered consensus track guidance.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional
strengthening tonight and Wednesday, as vertical wind shear remains
low, mid-levels moist, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain at
27/28C. Beyond this, while shear remains low, the mid-levels dry out
considerably and SSTs decrease to near 26C. This should lead to
steady weakening with Newton degenerating into a post-tropical
remnant low Friday night or Saturday, and dissipating shortly
thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward to
account for the increase in initial intensity, and is roughly
between the statistical and dynamical intensity aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 17.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.0N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 18.3N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 18.6N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 18.9N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 19.3N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown/Jelsema
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