ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 130SE 130SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 270SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 107.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.2N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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