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Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022
Madeline has changed little in appearance since earlier today.
Moderate east-northeasterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is
keeping the center of circulation at the northeastern edge of
the cyclone's deep convection. With the lack of any appreciable
change to Madeline's structure, the initial advisory intensity is
being kept at 40 kt for continuity.
The storm has made its anticipated acceleration to the north and is
now moving at about 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the Atlantic
should keep Madeline on a northward to northwestward track for the
next day or so. By Tuesday, another ridge building over Texas
should cause the cyclone to turn westward. There was very little
change to the latest NHC track forecast from the previous one,
which lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. It should
be noted that there is over 300 n mi north to south model spread
by day 4. Therefore, the track forecast during days 4-5 is of lower
confidence.
Madeline's intensity forecast is fairly straightforward for the next
few days, but is more complicated thereafter due to the uncertain
track forecast. The moderate shear affecting the storm now is
forecast to persist through early next week while the system remains
embedded in a moist thermodynamic environment. The combination of
these conditions should allow for some slight strengthening over the
next couple of days. By 48 h, the SSTs beneath Madeline are expected
to decrease to near 26 degrees Celsius, which in combination with
the shear, should cause the system to begin weakening around that
time. By late in the forecast period, the shear is forecast to
decrease while warmer waters are present just to the south of the
forecasted path of the cyclone. Therefore, a deviation to the left
of the forecast track could put Madeline in a more favorable
environment for strengthening. However, the models suggest that
regardless of the water temperatures, Madeline is expected to
encounter drier and more stable air later in the forecast period.
Based on these conditions, the NHC intensity forecast was lowered
slightly from the previous one, and is near the various consensus
aids. The latter part of the current intensity forecast is also low
confidence.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 16.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.2N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 20.6N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 20.7N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 20.7N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
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Forecaster Latto
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