ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
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Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022
...KAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 113.0 West. Kay is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja
California peninsula this evening and tonight, and be near the
west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). An automated observing station at Puerto Cortes,
on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, reported a
sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (67 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over
the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread
northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Friday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.