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Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022
...KAY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 112.8 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should
continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula this afternoon, and be near the west-central coast of the
Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible this afternoon. Although
weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, Kay is expected to
remain a large hurricane when it passes near the west-central coast
of the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 971 mb (28.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning in the next few hours and are
forecast to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch on Friday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.