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Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022
Kay looks slightly better organized on satellite imagery with a
broad eye-like feature surrounded by curved bands of strong
convection. Upper-level outflow is strong over all but the
northwestern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is
bumped up slightly to 80 kt which is a compromise between highly
varied subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. It should be
noted there is a greater than usual amount of uncertainty in the
advisory intensity.
Vertical wind shear on Kay is forecast to be low, and the system is
expected to remain in a fairly moist mid-level air mass for the next
few days. These factors should lead to further short-term
strengthening. However, SSTs will be decreasing significantly in 24
to 36 hours, which will likely result in a weakening trend
commencing on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, very cool
waters should result in Kay becoming a post-tropical cyclone after
it passes near the northern Baja California in around 96 hours.
This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the global
models that show little or no associated deep convection around that
time. The official intensity forecast is above the guidance
models, especially for the first half of the forecast period.
Kay continues northwestward, moving at about 320/11 kt. There is
little change to the track forecast reasoning. A ridge to the
northeast of the cyclone is expected to result in a mostly
north-northwestward motion for the next few days. This should bring
the core of the of Kay very near the west-central Baja California
coast on Thursday and Friday. Later in the forecast period,
low-level ridging is expected to cause the weakening cyclone to turn
westward. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and
also close to the corrected multi-model consensus.
Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula and
mainland northwestern Mexico through Friday.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane
watch has been issued. Additional tropical storm watches and
warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be
required later tonight and Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 111.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.6N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 26.8N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 28.5N 116.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 31.1N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/0000Z 30.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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