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Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022
The satellite presentation of Kay has improved within the past
couple of hours. A curved band with cloud top temperatures below
-85C has wrapped around the center and has formed a ragged
banding-type eye in infrared imagery. The latest subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite estimates are all around 65 kt, but with
the earlier reconnaissance data supporting a higher intensity and
the recent improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been
raised to 75 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate Kay this afternoon.
The much-anticipated northwestward turn appears to have occurred,
and the initial motion estimate is now 310/11 kt. Kay is forecast
to move on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours
around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. After that time,
the hurricane is forecast to turn north-northwestward, bringing the
core near the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula in 60-72
hours. Some of the dynamical track models including the HWRF,
GFS and GFS ensemble mean, have made a noticeable eastward shift
over the past few cycles, while the ECMWF has changed little. The
updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the
previous advisory out of respect for the aforementioned models, but
it is not quite as far east as the latest GFS, GFS ensemble mean or
HFIP corrected consensus. The forecast is a blend of the ECMWF and
GFS and is just east of the simple consensus aids.
Kay's outflow remains somewhat constricted over the northeastern
quadrant due to moderate northeasterly shear. However, the shear
is forecast to relax over the next 24 to 36 hours, and given the
recent improvement in organization, additional strengthening is
expected during that time. The NHC forecast has been raised from
the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the guidance in
best agreement with the SHIPS model. After 36 hours, Kay will be
moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and weakening
should begin. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes
its closest approach to the west-central coast of the Baja
peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and strong hurricane at
that time. In addition, winds and rainfall impacts will extend far
form the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast
track.
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the southern portions of the Baja California peninsula. Additional
tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings could be necessary
for portions of Baja California later today.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja
California peninsula, through Thursday night.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect.
3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula later this week. A tropical storm or hurricane
watch could be issued for that region later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 108.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 110.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 21.1N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.1N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 25.1N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.8N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 29.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 30.3N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
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