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Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022
Kay was upgraded to a hurricane earlier today based on valuable data
that was received from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters just before
the previous advisory issuance. The aircraft reported dropsonde data
that supported a minimum pressure around 980 mb, along with
flight-level winds of 85 kt at 850 mb and SFMR winds up to 71 kt in
the eastern portion of the cyclone. There were some earlier hints of
a ragged eye trying to emerge in visible imagery, but the center is
still obscured by a small central dense overcast. The inner core
structure of the cyclone does not appear to have improved much based
on a couple of recent passive microwave overpasses, as some dry air
has wrapped into the western and southern portions of the
circulation. Based on the earlier aircraft data, the intensity of
Kay is held at 70 kt for this advisory.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 285/9 kt. The track
guidance for Kay over the next few days remains in good agreement.
Kay is expected to turn northwestward on Tuesday and then
north-northwestward by early Wednesday while moving toward or to the
west of the Baja California peninsula. While the core of the storm
is still forecast to remain offshore, the large wind field could
bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of Baja
California by early Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to make its
closest approach to the west-central portion of Baja California late
Thursday into Friday. The official NHC forecast lies very close to
the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and has been nudged
slightly to the right of the previous one. It is noted that the GFS
and ECMWF still lie on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.
Kay has significantly strengthened today despite some moderate
northeasterly deep-layer shear diagnosed by the SHIPS guidance over
the system. This shear is forecast to diminish in a day or so, while
Kay remains over very warm SSTs and in a moist and unstable
environment. Thus, more strengthening is anticipated and Kay could
approach major hurricane strength in 36-48 h. The official NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies slightly above
the IVCN aid and closer to HCCA. By early Thursday, drier air and
cooler SSTs at higher latitudes will cause Kay to begin weakening.
The cyclone is forecast to lose its organized convection and become
a post-tropical low by day 5.
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos. Additional
tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings could be necessary
for portions of Baja California later tonight or on Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Gusts to tropical-storm-force and rough surf along the coast of
southwestern Mexico are expected through Tuesday. In addition,
heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western
Mexico through Wednesday night.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the southern Baja
California peninsula by early Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued.
3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula later this week. A tropical storm or hurricane
watch could be issued for that region by Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.0N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 109.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.3N 111.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.9N 112.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.7N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 23.7N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.6N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.5N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.0N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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