ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022
This morning's satellite presentation consists of a recent deep
convective burst with -78C cloud tops just to the west of the
surface circulation center. A 0116 UTC SSMI/S microwave image
showed a primary curved band wrapping around 65 percent of the
cyclone's surface center. Based on a compromise of the latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, a 0428 UTC SATCON
analysis of 49 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
revealing a few peak-wind retrievals of 39 kt (undersampling
likely), the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.
There's a small window of opportunity that Javier could strengthen
slightly today before it moves over a gradient of progressively
cooler waters of less than 24C this evening. This negatively
contributing oceanic parameter, along with an increasingly stable
surrounding environment should cause Javier to become a
post-tropical cyclone Sunday, and a remnant low-pressure system by
early next week.
Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/13
kt. This general motion should continue through today in response
to the mid-level steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge
anchored over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. By early
Sunday, the global models are in good agreement that this ridge
should build westward and influence Javier to slowly turn toward
the west-northwest to west while the cyclone weakens. The NHC
forecast follows suit and lies close to the TVCE and NOAA HFIP HCCA
consensus aids.
Javier's wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory using a
fortuitous 0430 UTC METOP-B ASCAT overpass. Although the NHC
forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico,
any additional eastward deviation from the official track forecast
could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of
Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 24.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 25.4N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 26.8N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.3N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0600Z 27.5N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 27.3N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 26.9N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 26.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z 26.0N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN