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Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022
While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep
convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with
cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is
raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB.
The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26
degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate
atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional
strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental
moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official
forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next
day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over
cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier
is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The
storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its
north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build
westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The
official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous
forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However,
tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to
remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur.
Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast
during the next couple of days.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart
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