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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Although there has been sporadic and disorganized convection mainly
to the southwest of the center of Ivette today, this system lacks
sufficient organized, deep convection to qualify as a tropical
cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory. The initial
intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on the satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB. Some additional sporadic bursts of convection
may occur over the next day or two while the remnant low is over
marginally warm waters. However, persistent strong easterly
vertical wind shear associated with a large upper-level anticyclone
to the north of the system should prevent any significant convective
reorganization for the next several days.
Ivette has continued its motion westward at 5 kt. Over the next day
or so, the system should turn west-northwestward in the low-level
flow. A building low-level ridge to the northwest of Ivette should
eventually steer the remnants westward and then west-southwestward
until it opens up into a trough in a few days.
For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/0600Z 17.5N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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