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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in
terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top
temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and
the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt
for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that
Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today,
and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the
cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h.
Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed
of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or
so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly
flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which
remains based on the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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