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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022
 
The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast 
of southwestern Mexico has continued to show increased signs of 
organization this morning. A 0857 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass suggests 
its circulation has become better defined, and satellite imagery 
shows evidence of some curved convective banding mainly to the east 
of its estimated low-level position. Additionally, the subjective 
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.0 and T1.5, 
respectively. Since the system now meets the criteria of a tropical 
cyclone, advisories are being initiated on this system as a 30-kt 
tropical depression.

The center is located near the western edge of the convective mass, 
likely due to the 10-15 kt of westerly shear that the cyclone is 
experiencing this morning. Although weak to moderate shear may 
continue to affect the system during the next couple of days, the 
majority of the guidance suggests that warm SSTs and sufficient 
mid-level moisture should allow for at least gradual strengthening 
through early next week. This trend is reflected in the NHC 
forecast, which calls for the depression to become a tropical storm 
by tonight and continue intensifying to near hurricane strength by 
Tuesday. Then, the system is forecast to move into a drier, more 
stable environment over decreasing SSTs, which should induce a 
weakening trend through the middle of next week.

The estimated initial motion of the depression is northwestward, or 
305/11 kt. A distant low- to mid-level ridge over the southern U.S. 
should steer the cyclone northwestward to west-northwestward over 
the next few days, keeping it well offshore of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. Although there is reasonably good agreement in 
the early part of the forecast period, there is above-average spread 
in the track guidance on days 3-5. Stronger model solutions like the 
GFS and HWRF lie on the northern end of the guidance envelope, while 
the weaker ECMWF and UKMET solutions are much further south. The 
official NHC forecast generally follows the multi-model consensus 
aids, but lies a bit north of HCCA and TVCE at later forecast times.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 14.3N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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