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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022
There is not a lot of new information to report with Georgette this
morning. Small bursts of convection continue to sporadically fire
southwest of the low-level center which occasionally has been
exposed due to continued moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear.
There has been little change with the satellite intensity estimates
and thus the intensity remains 30 kt this advisory. The ECMWF-based
SHIPS guidance shows little change in the shear magnitude, though it
does pivot the vector out of the north, which could help import even
drier, more stable air than the depression is currently
experiencing. Georgette will also be crossing the 26 C sea surface
temperature isotherm in the next 12-24 hours. These factors will
likely lead to the tropical cyclone's demise, and the latest
forecast now makes Georgette a post-tropical remnant low in about 24
hours, when the ECMWF simulated IR imagery shows the remaining deep
convection dissipating. The remnant low may take another day or
two before it opens up into a trough.
A north-northeastward motion continues, though there has been a
little bit of acceleration at 030/7 kt. The current weakness north
of Georgette is expected to be replaced by a building low-level
ridge, with should result in the cyclone taking a sharp westward
turn in the next 24-36 hours. The track forecast is just a
bit east of the prior one early on due to the current motion, but
ends up a bit south at the end of the forecast period when
Georgette opens up into a trough. This forecast is close to a
blend of the ECMWF and GFS model tracks (GFEX).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 16.8N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 18.0N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 17.7N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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