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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022
Georgette continues to hang on to tropical cyclone status. Small
bursts of convection persist to the southwest of the partially
exposed low-level center. Since the convective organization has not
changed, the initial intensity remains at 30 kts, slightly below the
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Moderate
northeasterly to northerly shear is expected over the next few days.
This vertical wind shear combined with the drier surrounding
environment and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures are
likely to cause Georgette to become a remnant low in a day or two.
There were no updates to the intensity forecast this cycle.
The system is moving north-northeastward at about 6 kt into the
weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by Post-Tropical Cyclone
Frank. Within about a day, the low-level ridge should begin
building back and turn Georgette westward as well as increase its
forward speed. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous track prediction and close to the various consensus model
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 17.6N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 17.9N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 17.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Berg
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