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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022
 
Convection has continued to pulse near Georgette's circulation
over the past 12 to 24 hours, but there has been little, if any,
organization to the thunderstorm activity during that time. In
fact, the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) provided its last
Dvorak T1.0 on the system at 1800 UTC yesterday, indicating the 
lack of organization since that time.  The initial intensity is set 
at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT data 
that showed peak winds just above 25 kt.
 
Given the lack of organization it now appears more likely that 
Georgette will succumb to the marginal environment that is embedded 
within.  Moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs cooling to around 26C 
along the forecast track, and dry mid-level humidity is expected
to result in additional weakening and degeneration of the system to
a remnant low within the next day or two. This could occur as soon
as later today, if organized deep convection does not return.
 
Georgette has made its much anticipated northeastward turn, with the 
latest motion estimated at 040/6 kt.  Low- to mid-level 
southwesterly flow to the south of Frank should continue to steer 
Georgette northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that 
time, a low-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the 
cyclone, which will cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward.  
The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the 
previous forecast to be in better agreement with the latest track 
model envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 14.1N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 14.8N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 15.7N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 16.5N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 16.8N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 16.7N 132.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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