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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
 
Georgette continues to be characterized by pulsating and somewhat 
disorganized deep convection near it's center of circulation.  The 
latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from T-1.0 to T-2.5, and a 
blend of these values suggests that the initial intensity remains 30 
kt. 
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is beginning its 
turn toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the current 
motion is north-northwest at 3 kt.  A turn to the north-northeast is 
expected by tonight, and that motion should continue for a couple of 
days.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen by late this week, which 
should cause Georgette to turn westward along with an increase in 
forward speed.  Overall, the track model guidance has become a 
little more clustered than previous cycles, and there has been a 
slight shift to the right in the guidance through 72 h.  Therefore, 
the latest NHC track forecast was adjusted a little right of the 
previous one through that time period, but remains a little to the 
left of the consensus.
 
Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an 
environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and within 
a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass.  By 60 h, the cyclone 
should move over waters of 25-26 degrees C.  These conditions are 
expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone and cause it to 
degenerate into a remnant low toward the latter part of the week.  
The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one 
and is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 13.4N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 13.8N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 14.5N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 15.4N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 16.4N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 17.1N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 17.3N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 16.6N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 15.8N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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