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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022
Deep convection waned through the overnight hours over the center of
Georgette. However, over the past couple of hours some regeneration
of convection has occurred over the cyclone's southern semicircle.
There has been no new satellite wind data over the storm since early
this morning, but the degradation of Georgette's appearance suggests
continued weakening has occurred since the previous advisory. A
blend of the latest CI values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT
yields an intensity of 35 kt, which will be the initial advisory
intensity.
Georgette is moving slowly westward, or 260/5 kt, to the south of a
mid-tropospheric ridge. The portion of the ridge to the north of the
cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane Frank
passes well to the north. As a result, Georgette should continue to
slow its forward motion and then begin drifting northward early this
week toward the temporary weakness in the ridge carved out by
Frank. By mid-week, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen,
forcing the cyclone on a more westward track. The latest NHC
forecast track is very similar to the previous one, as the track
guidance has changed little since that time.
The outflow from the large circulation of Frank continues to produce
some strong easterly shear across Georgette that is causing it to
struggle maintaining persistent deep convection. This shear is
forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Therefore,
Georgette is expected to weaken a little more today and be a
tropical depression through early this week. There is some
possiblity that the shear will decrease before Georgette passes
over cooler waters, and some flucuation in intensity is possible
before Georgette becomes a remnant low late in the period. The
latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower than the
previous one, and is close to the various multi-model intensity
consensus solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 13.1N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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