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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022
Easterly wind shear and a dry environment appear to be taking a
toll on Georgette. Deep convection associated with the tropical
storm has decreased in coverage during the afternoon and evening,
leaving Georgette's center nearly exposed. The initial intensity
remains 45 kt for this intensity based on recent current intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.
Georgette's future remains cloudy (lack of cold cloud tops near its
center notwithstanding), due to its marginal surrounding environment
and the potential for interaction with a larger tropical cyclone,
Frank, currently located to the east. For the next day or so, a
low- to mid-level ridge should steer Georgette west-southwestward or
southwestward at a slightly slower speed than its current forward
speed of 11 kt. However, the tropical storm will slow to a crawl as
Frank moves closer and eventually north of Georgette. Confidence in
Georgette's track forecast is quite low once it slows down. In
general, the tropical storm or its remnants should begin to move
northward to northeastward by early next week, however there is a
large degree of spread in the models. The new NHC track forecast is
most similar to the previous official forecast, however this should
not be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the forecast.
Most of the intensity guidance agrees that Georgette will weaken
over the next few days. There's no indication that the tropical
cyclone's environment will become conducive for strengthening, so
weakening seems likely. The main source of disagreement is on how
fast that weakening will occur, and if Georgette will dissipate or
become post-tropical within the next 5 days. Some models like the
GFS and HWRF indicate Georgette could persist longer than the
official forecast indicates, while others like the ECMWF suggest it
could become post-tropical by the middle of next week. The new
official intensity forecast shows Georgette weakening a little
faster than the previous advisory, similar to the latest multi-model
intensity consensus, IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 14.5N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.1N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.7N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 13.4N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 13.6N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 14.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 14.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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