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Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Frank's convective pattern is currently comprised of an inner area 
of eyewall convection that is now almost surrounded by outer 
convective bands. However, an eye has not appeared since the last 
advisory, and the inner core convection is a bit sporadic and 
asymmetric.  The various satellite intensity estimates are again 
unchanged since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 
at 80 kt.

The hurricane is now moving over decreasing sea surface 
temperatures and it has just about run out of time to intensify.  
The center should reach the 26C isotherm in 12-18 h and reach 21C 
water by 72 h.  This should cause steady to rapid weakening to occur 
after 12 h, with Frank forecast to decay to a remnant low by 96 h.  
The new intensity forecast is adjusted downward from the previous 
advisory and it follows the trend of the intensity guidance.  It 
should be noted that near the end of the forecast period, the GFS 
model continues to show some rejuvenation of convection as the 
post-tropical cyclone interacts with an upper-level trough to its 
northwest.
 
Frank continues moving northwestward or 310/10 kt, and there is 
again little change to the track forecast scenario.  The cyclone 
should continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast 
period while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-level ridge toward a developing break in the ridge west of
California. The track guidance has made yet another slight shift to 
the north and east at 96 and 120 h, and the latest forecast shows a 
similar slight shift at those times.  Otherwise, it is another
update of the previous forecast that lies close to the consensus
models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 17.2N 117.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 19.5N 119.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 20.8N 121.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 22.1N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 23.5N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 24.9N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 27.5N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1800Z 29.0N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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