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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Frank continues to become better organized this evening. The storm
has developed a well-defined outflow in the southern and eastern
portions of the circulation. Subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest Frank is a 55-kt tropical
storm. The initial intensity has been adjusted upward to match
these estimates.
The vertical wind shear over Frank appears to be diminishing.
Significant strengthening is expected since atmospheric and oceanic
conditions are predicted to be conducive for intensification, and
the most recent statistical model guidance indicates high
probabilities for rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. As a
result, the official forecast now shows a faster rate of
strengthening in the next day with a peak intensity of 95 kt by 48
hours. After that time, Frank is forecast to cross over cooler sea
surface temperatures and into a more stable atmospheric environment.
This should cause the system to weaken into a post-tropical cyclone
by the end of the period.
Frank is moving westward at 9 kt. The storm is forecast to turn to
the west-northwest shortly as it is steered around the periphery of
a subtropical ridge. Within a day, Frank should turn northwestward
as it moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC
track prediction is very similar to the previous advisory forecast
and closest to the model consensus aid, TVCE.
It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
expected to come close enough to one another to interact. Frank
will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and
Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity
of Frank.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 13.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 13.8N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 14.9N 114.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 17.4N 118.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 18.7N 119.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 19.9N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 22.2N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 24.4N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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