ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

The northeasterly vertical wind shear continues to diminish over 
Frank, and the cyclone is responding to this by getting better 
organized with increased curved convective bands.  The various 
satellite intensity estimates continue to range from 35-55 kt, and 
they have nudged upward a little since the last advisory.  Based on 
this, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.

Frank now has about a 48-h window in which to either steadily or 
rapidly intensify in conditions of light shear and sea surface 
temperatures of 28-29C.  The intensity guidance is stronger for 
this advisory, and the intensity forecast now calls for a peak 
intensity of 95 kt in 48 h.  It is possible this is conservative, as 
this forecast is not at the top of the guidance envelope and the 
rapid intensification index of the SHIPS model is showing about a 
50 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h.  
After 48 h, while the shear is forecast to remain light, the cyclone
should move over steadily decreasing SSTs, reaching 21C water by
120 h.  This should cause a steady to rapid weakening.

Frank continues to move westward with the initial motion 280/10 kt. 
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 12 h or 
so, followed by a northwestward motion as the cyclone heads for a 
break in the subtropical ridge produced by mid- to upper-level 
troughing over the northeastern Pacific.  While the track guidance 
is in good agreement with this scenario, the across-track spread is 
a little larger than for the previous forecast, with the GFS on 
the right side of the guidance and the UKMET on the left.  The new 
track prediction lies close to the consensus models and is a little 
north of the previous forecast from 72-120 h.
 
It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
expected to come close enough to one another to interact. Frank 
will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and 
Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity 
of Frank.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 13.6N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 14.5N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 15.6N 115.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 16.9N 117.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 18.1N 119.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 19.4N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 21.6N 124.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 24.0N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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