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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022
 
Frank remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located
near the northeastern edge of a large and persistent convective
mass.  Both the ASCAT B and C instruments once again only caught
the outer portion of Frank's circulation and did not provide 
assistance in determining the intensity or size of the storm's wind 
field. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB 
remained T3.0, which supports maintaining an initial intensity 
of 45 kt.
 
The wind shear over Frank has decreased slightly over the past 24
hours, and a more significant reduction in shear is anticipated
within the next day or so.  The reduction in shear along with SSTs
of 28 to 29C should allow Frank to strengthen more quickly 
beginning later today.  By 36 h, the upper-level wind pattern is 
forecast to become much more favorable and a period of rapid 
strengthening could occur during that time. The NHC forecast 
follows the higher HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance, and is 
just above the peak intensity predicted by the SHIPS model. 
After 72 hours, Frank will be moving over cooler waters and into
less favorable thermodynamic conditions which is expected to result
in steady weakening.
 
Frank continues to move westward at about 10 kt.  The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
Frank is forecast to gradually turn west-northwestward to
northwestward over the next few days as it nears the western 
periphery of the subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in better 
agreement than it has been, but the overall track envelope is 
slightly more northward which has result in a slight poleward 
adjustment to the official forecast.
 
It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact.  The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 12.9N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 13.3N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 14.9N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 16.0N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 20.7N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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