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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
 
Estelle does not look quite as impressive as it did this morning in 
conventional satellite imagery. Its structure consists of a small, 
ragged inner core with several curved outer bands that wrap around 
its center. Northeasterly shear continues to impinge on the 
cyclone, which could be importing some drier mid-level air into the 
circulation. The latest subjective and objective satellite estimates 
range from 55-65 kt, and without new microwave data to better assess 
any structural changes, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt.
 
Despite a brief pause in intensification, environmental conditions 
appear generally favorable for more strengthening during the next 
couple of days. Overall, the latest intensity guidance favors steady 
to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h as Estelle crosses 
very warm SSTs in a moist and unstable environment. The persistent 
moderate deep-layer shear is a concern, but only a small improvement 
in its inner core structure should allow the small cyclone to resume 
strengthening tonight. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the 
higher end of the guidance, closest to SHIPS/LGEM and slightly above 
HCCA, and shows peak intensity as a major hurricane in 36-48 h. 
Then, increasing northerly shear and decreasing SSTs along the 
forecast track should cause Estelle to weaken through the middle of 
next week, as it moves into a drier mid-level environment. 

Estelle is still moving west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. The track 
reasoning has not changed, and the cyclone should generally maintain 
a west-northwestward heading during the next several days as it is 
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United 
States. The NHC track forecast is just slightly left of the previous 
track, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 14.2N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 14.7N 105.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 16.2N 109.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 16.8N 111.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 17.2N 113.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 17.9N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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