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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
There's been quite a bit of improvement this morning in Bonnie's 
inner core structure and a cloud-filled eye reappeared in first 
light visible imagery.  A 1216 UTC SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a 
partial eyewall with about 70 percent coverage in the north through 
southwest quadrants and recent enhanced infrared images show Bonnie 
attempting to close off a white ring with -77C cloud top 
temperatures.  The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this 
advisory, in accordance with the subjective satellite intensity 
estimates.  Bonnie's surface wind profile has been reduced in all 
quadrants based on a 0448 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass and 
subsequently has been adjusted downward in the forecast.
 
The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to 
make a comeback.  This sudden intensification is expected to be 
temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on 
Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface 
temperatures.  Dry, stable environmental conditions will also 
contribute to its eventual dissipation by late this weekend.  The 
NHC forecast is again adjusted downward from the previous one and is 
based mainly on the global models and the IVCN intensity aid.  
Bonnie should degenerate to a remnant low in 4 days, if not earlier, 
and open into a trough of low pressure early next week.
 
Bonnie's moving westward, or 280/10 kt within the westerly 
mid-level steering flow of a subtropical ridge to the north.  There 
are no changes to the forecast track philosophy.  The cyclone 
should continue on a westward to west-northwestward fashion 
with an increase in forward speed commencing Thursday.  The 
official forecast is essentially the same as last night's advisory 
and agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus.
 
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico 
today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 16.1N 108.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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