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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022
 
Bonnie's cloud pattern has deteriorated since the previous 
advisory and the storm seems to be feeling the effects of some 
moderate north-northeasterly shear.  The eye has filled in and the 
colder cloud tops (of less than -80C) are less prevalent in the 
western portion of the circulation.  The initial intensity has been 
lowered to 95 kt, and this could be a generous estimate given the 
recent degradation of the inner core on satellite imagery.  
Vertical wind shear from the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance is 
forecast to remain moderate in the next 12 hours and will likely 
prevent Bonnie from strengthening further.  The storm is then 
expected to enter an increasingly drier environment, as seen in 
water vapor imagery just to the west of the hurricane, and move 
over cooler waters, which should speed up its weakening.  Bonnie is 
now expected to become post-tropical by day 4, which is consistent 
with simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global 
models. The intensity forecast is mostly a continuation of the 
previous advisory, but slightly lower because of the lowered 
initial intensity.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southern 
periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north.  This ridge is 
forecast to weaken a bit in the next day or so and slightly 
reduce the forward speed of the system for a couple of days.  As 
the circulation weakens and becomes more shallow, it is expected to 
turn more westward and increase in forward speed following the 
lower-level flow.  The official track forecast is very similar to 
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus aids.
 
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 15.7N 107.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
 
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