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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Celia appears to be holding its own this afternoon. While convection
has waned as it typically does approaching the diurnal minimum over
the ocean, there remain a few convective clusters located near the
depression's estimated low-level center. While scatterometer imagery
largely missed Celia's circulation to the west, it did show that
there were 25-30 kt northerly wind-retrievals in the gap wind flow
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These somewhat higher winds are not yet
related to Celia's wind field, but will likely play some role in
broadening the overall cyclonic envelope of the system. Satellite
estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged from this morning, and
so the current intensity remains 25 kt.
The depression is losing some latitude while it has sped up some,
with its current motion estimated at 260/9 kt. A general west-
southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next day or so
because of northward deep-layer ridging in addition to the
northerly gap winds contributing to Celia's steering. Later this
week, a gradual rightward turn to the west-northwest is anticipated
due to the cyclone rounding the southwest side of the deep-layer
ridging. Once again the track guidance has shifted a bit south this
cycle, and the NHC track is also shifted in that direction, which
lies close to the multi-model consensus aids.
There are some interesting variations in the intensity guidance this
afternoon. For example, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance
disagree on how quickly the northeasterly shear over Celia will
subside over the next several days. The ECMWF notably now shows the
shear dropping under 20 kt as soon as 18 hours from now and
remaining under that value for the remainder of the forecast period.
The GFS shear forecast is a good 5-10 kt higher for the next 48
hours. An inspection of the raw model fields, using simulated
IR-Brightness temperature, reveals that the GFS struggles to produce
deep convection near Celia over that time span, while the ECMWF
shows more widespread convection near Celia's center. This
convection may result in more upper-level outflow mitigating the
easterly shear over the cyclone. The ECMWF has also been handling
the convective structure with Celia better today, so some credence
is given towards its overall solution. The NHC intensity forecast
now shows a bit more intensification after 24 hours, and now makes
Celia a hurricane by 96 hours, which is faster than the previous
forecast. This is more in line with the IVCN consensus, but remains
lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HWRF, HMON,
ECMWF-SHIPS).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 12.7N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 12.1N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 11.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 11.6N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 12.1N 100.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 13.0N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 16.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
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