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Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to
improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In
fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is
developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye
feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC
subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt
from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates
from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate
at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for
the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane.
The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the
large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning
has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A
continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is
anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge
poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward
ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to
become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as
the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast
track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the
adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous
forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track
guidance envelope.
The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an
inner core, which would likely support further intensification today
as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible
complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over
the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting
factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification
and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas
will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters
by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by
Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose
its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end
of the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
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