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Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA...
...CORE OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 96.9 West. Agatha is moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico,
during the next few hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Agatha
reaches the coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is forecast after
landfall, and Agatha is expected to dissipate over southeastern
Mexico by late Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km). An observation in Puerto Angel recently reported a
wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring along the coast of Oaxaca and will
spread eastward within the warning area through tonight.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.