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Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 PM AST Wed Nov 02 2022
Martin is an impressive high-latitude hurricane for November.
Satellite imagery shows that the eye continues to become better
defined with warmer temperatures in the center, along with a mostly
solid eyewall. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB have
increased to T4.5 or 77 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 75
kt based on that data.
The hurricane should begin extratropical transition overnight, with
almost all of the guidance indicating strengthening. The high-
resolution hurricane models and most of the global models are still
showing a sting-jet-like feature, with winds of 90 kt or more
expected tomorrow morning in the southern semicircle.
Additionally, at about the same time, Martin should grow
substantially due to a favorable mid-latitude trough
interaction. Gradual weakening should start by tomorrow afternoon
as the baroclinic forcing decreases, but Martin should be a
very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over
the far North Atlantic. Little change was made to the previous
forecast, and Martin should become an extratropical low by 18
UTC on Thursday.
Martin has turned northeastward and continues to pick up
speed, now 27 kt. The hurricane should move faster to the
north-northeast and north as it becomes drawn into the strong
deep-layer trough to its northwest during the next day or two. This
same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, causing the now
merged extratropical cyclone to slow down and eventually move
eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies toward the British Isles.
The new forecast was shifted eastward at long range, with only
small modifications otherwise.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 37.1N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 40.4N 43.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 48.0N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0600Z 54.6N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z 56.3N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0600Z 56.0N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1800Z 55.0N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1800Z 57.0N 11.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP