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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane IAN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120   
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  21(31)   X(31)   X(31)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  22(32)   X(32)   X(32)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)   8(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  15(20)   9(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)  15(19)  16(35)   X(35)   X(35)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   4( 4)  10(14)  31(45)   9(54)   X(54)   X(54)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  2   5( 7)  13(20)  30(50)   8(58)   X(58)   X(58)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)  13(22)   X(22)   X(22)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  3   4( 7)   8(15)  19(34)   6(40)   X(40)   X(40)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  4  35(39)  19(58)   9(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  3   9(12)   5(17)   3(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  5  43(48)  20(68)   6(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  1  11(12)  14(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  5  37(42)  13(55)   3(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
JACKSONVILLE   50  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 32  36(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  2   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 70  23(93)   3(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  5  51(56)   5(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  1  30(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 92   5(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
THE VILLAGES   50 13  41(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
THE VILLAGES   64  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 48  37(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ORLANDO FL     64 15  41(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 16  39(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  3  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 17  39(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
PATRICK AFB    64  3  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 95   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
FT PIERCE FL   50  7  16(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
FT PIERCE FL   64  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 87   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
W PALM BEACH   50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34 68   1(69)   X(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 
MIAMI FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34 28   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50 83   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
TAMPA FL       64 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 52  12(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  5  12(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
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