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HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 21(31) X(31) X(31)
FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 16(35) X(35) X(35)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 31(45) 9(54) X(54) X(54)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 5( 7) 13(20) 30(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 3 4( 7) 8(15) 19(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KINGS BAY GA 34 4 35(39) 19(58) 9(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WAYCROSS GA 34 3 9(12) 5(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 43(48) 20(68) 6(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 11(12) 14(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
JACKSONVILLE 34 5 37(42) 13(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
JACKSONVILLE 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 32 36(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 70 23(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 5 51(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 1 30(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
THE VILLAGES 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
THE VILLAGES 50 13 41(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
THE VILLAGES 64 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ORLANDO FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 50 48 37(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
ORLANDO FL 64 15 41(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 16 39(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 3 33(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
PATRICK AFB 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 50 17 39(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
PATRICK AFB 64 3 33(36) X(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37)
FT PIERCE FL 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
FT PIERCE FL 50 7 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
FT PIERCE FL 64 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
W PALM BEACH 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 68 1(69) X(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 28 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KEY WEST FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NAPLES FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 50 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
TAMPA FL 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 52 12(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
APALACHICOLA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 12(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
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