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Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022
...IAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 72.9 West. Ian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A
turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a
north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean
Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or
over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will
then approach western Cuba on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian
is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches
Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains could begin as early as
Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.