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HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF
CITY...NORTH CAROLINA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO
CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA.
 
THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOWER KEYS
AND THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* FLORIDA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  82.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  82.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  82.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.8N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...360NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N  80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N  80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N  81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N  82.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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