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Hurricane IAN


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HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  82.9W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  82.9W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  83.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N  82.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N  81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.2N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.3N  80.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...310NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.6N  80.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...260NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.7N  81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.0N  82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N  82.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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