ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022
Based on the current infrared and microwave satellite data, the
system does not appear to have a closed surface circulation yet and
is therefore still not a tropical cyclone. The mid-level center is
estimated to be located in the southwestern portion of the deep
convection. Since there has been little change in organization
after the Air Force reconnaissance left the system, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt based on that data.
The disturbance is moving northwestward at 12 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue until landfall Saturday night in
northeastern Mexico as the system is steered by a ridge to its
northeast. The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory prediction and closest to the correct consensus
Slight strengthening of the system is expected before landfall.
Global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase in the
next day or so, which should limit future organization and
strengthening of the disturbance. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to show a peak of 40 kt before the system reaches the
coast. It is worth noting that this intensity prediction is
slightly above the guidance envelope. After moving inland, the
system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours
near the Texas/Mexico border.
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued.
2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast
of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and
Nuevo Leon, during the day Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rain may also
move to the far south Texas coast through Saturday night, producing
local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 21.8N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/1200Z 23.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 21/1200Z 26.9N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND