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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022
...DISTURBANCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the
system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on
Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
locally heavy rain across portions of northern Colombia for the
next several hours, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
Northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.