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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022
Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting
better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in
the northern semicircle. However, surface observations from
Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet
developed a closed circulation. Therefore, it still has the status
of a potential tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35
kt based on the various surface observations.
The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and
warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this
should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr.
Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from
the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster
development appears likely. The new intensity forecast is similar
to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane
strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point.
Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that
the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after
crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast.
The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a
somewhat uncertain 285/23 kt. A general westward motion near or
just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the
presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. A south of west
motion may occur for a time while the system is over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track is lies close to the various consensus models.
1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the
Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through
late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible.
2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday
evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.
3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 10.9N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1200Z 11.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 30/0000Z 11.8N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 30/1200Z 12.3N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 76.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 12.2N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 12.0N 82.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 12.0N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
120H 04/0000Z 13.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH