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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
...DISTURBANCE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.0 North, longitude 85.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the system should move across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, across the southern and
central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over
the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late
Saturday through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and
become a tropical storm tonight, and some slight strengthening is
possible while it approaches Florida. Additional strengthening is
possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western
Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce
heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin
to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through
Saturday, and affect northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches
with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys This
rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.
Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Cuba through tonight, in Florida tonight and on
Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba this
afternoon and tonight.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: storm surge could raise water levels
by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.