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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jun 03 2022
A combination of satellite and radar images, as well as surface and
reconnaissance data indicate that the disturbance is still quite
ill-defined with multiple centers evident. Overall, the system
appears a little less organized than earlier today and resembles an
elongated trough with disorganized convection. Therefore, the
disturbance still lacks the criteria needed for a tropical cyclone,
so there remains no change in the system's status. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt based on Doppler radar data. Nearly all
of the deep convection is located on the system's east side with
the heaviest rain currently occurring over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and South Florida.
Since there is no real center of circulation, the initial motion is
uncertain, but the overall envelope is moving northeastward at about
10 kt. The disturbance is expected to continue northeastward and
move across south and central Florida early Saturday and then move
north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday and early Sunday.
After that time, a general east-northeast to northeast motion over
the western Atlantic is forecast, with the system moving closest to
Bermuda late Monday. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster
than the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.
Strong southwesterly shear and dry mid-level air should prevent the
disturbance from organizing much before it moves across Florida.
However, the models do show the system gaining some organization and
strength while it moves over the western Atlantic late this weekend
and early next week, and the system could benefit from some
baroclinic enhancements. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the
low side of the guidance through the period. The system is forecast
to become extratropical in 72-96 hours, but some models suggest that
this could occur a little sooner.
Data from the Cuban meteorological service indicate a couple of
locations have already received more than 10 inches of rain during
this event. The main impact will continue to be widespread heavy
rain that will affect portions of western Cuba, the southern
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
during the next day or so.
1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue
tonight across portions of western Cuba, where life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
2. Heavy rainfall will also affect the northwestern Bahamas, the
Keys, South Florida, and Central Florida tonight through Saturday.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South
Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible
across the northwestern Bahamas.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
western Cuba for a few more hours, in Florida tonight and on
Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba
during the next few hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 24.5N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/1200Z 25.8N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 05/0000Z 28.4N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 05/1200Z 30.7N 75.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 32.3N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 33.8N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 34.3N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 35.1N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 37.2N 52.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP